North Harbour, Canterbury, Northland, Hawke’s Bay and Otago have already secured their spots in the knockout stages, leaving Waikato, Taranaki, Tasman, Manawatū and Bay of Plenty to battle it out for the final three berths.
And with all five teams facing matches that could have a direct bearing on the final make-up of the quarter-finals, there is plenty still to be decided.
At the front of the chasing pack, Waikato know a single competition point will be enough to send them through. The Mooloos can book their quarter-final place with a win, a draw or a bonus-point loss against Northland. Even if they lose without a bonus point, Waikato can still qualify – but only if Taranaki take a point from Canterbury and Manawatū beat Canterbury with a bonus point.
For Taranaki, the equation is even simpler: a draw is enough.
The Bulls will qualify with a win, a draw or a loss in which they collect both bonus points. A one-point defeat would still be enough in most scenarios, although a Manawatū bonus-point win combined with a Tasman win in Hamilton could leave Taranaki needing the final standings to be settled on points difference. A loss without a bonus point would leave Taranaki relying on results elsewhere.
That brings Tasman firmly into the equation.
The Mako know exactly what they need to do: win in Hamilton and they're in. A draw with a try bonus would also put Tasman in contention, although a Manawatū bonus-point win and a Taranaki result could bring points difference into play. The permutations become more complicated for Tasman if they lose, but the message is straightforward – the Mako can take control of their own fate with victory.
For Manawatū, the equation is essentially: beat Canterbury and watch. A bonus-point victory would put the Turbos into the quarter-finals in most circumstances, although they would need results elsewhere to fall their way if Tasman beat Waikato while Waikato collect a bonus point and Taranaki avoid defeat.
A win without a bonus point would also leave Manawatū relying on the Tasman and Taranaki results, while anything less than a bonus-point win leaves the Turbos facing a much steeper path.
Bay of Plenty are the outsiders of the five, but they are still alive. The Steamers need a bonus-point win over North Harbour and plenty to go their way elsewhere. For Bay of Plenty, the clearest route is a bonus-point victory combined with a Tasman loss without a bonus point and Manawatū failing to win or draw with a try bonus. A straight win could also keep their hopes alive, but only through the points-difference calculations. Anything else will see the Steamers' season come to an end.
The final round therefore has plenty at stake across the competition, with several of the contenders directly connected by the results they need.
Five teams remain in contention.Three places are left.
And by the end of the final round, there will be no more permutations left to calculate.
So, what does each team need?
WAIKATO — ONE POINT AND THEY'RE IN
Current position: 6th, 29 points
Opposition: Tasman
- Win: In.
- Draw: In.
- Lose with a bonus point: In.
- Lose without a bonus point: Still in unless Taranaki take a point from Canterbury and Manawatū beat Canterbury with a bonus point.
Bottom line: The Mooloos control their own destiny. One competition point is enough.
TARANAKI — A DRAW IS ENOUGH
Current position: 7th, 29 points
Opposition: Wellington
- Win: In.
- Draw: In.
- Lose with both bonus points: In.
- Lose with one bonus point: In in most scenarios, but other results could bring points difference into play.
- Lose without a bonus point: They need help from elsewhere.
Bottom line: A draw guarantees the Bulls a quarter-final.
TASMAN — WIN IN HAMILTON AND THEY'RE IN
Current position: 8th, 27 points
Opposition: Waikato
- Win: In.
- Draw with a try bonus: In unless Manawatū beat Canterbury with a bonus point and Taranaki take a point; then points difference decides.
- Draw or lose with both bonus points: Still in depending on the Manawatū result, with points difference potentially required.
- Lose with one bonus point: Their hopes depend on Manawatū's result.
- Lose without a bonus point: They need Manawatū and Bay of Plenty results to fall their way, with points difference potentially deciding the final place.
Bottom line: Win in Hamilton and the Mako are through.
MANAWATŪ — BEAT CANTERBURY AND WATCH
Current position: 9th, 25 points
Opposition: Canterbury
- Win with a bonus point: In unless a specific combination of Tasman and Taranaki results leaves them relying on points difference.
- Win without a bonus point: They need help from Tasman and Taranaki.
- Draw with a try bonus: They need Tasman to lose without a bonus point, with points difference potentially deciding it.
- Draw or lose with both bonus points: They remain alive only in specific combinations and will likely need points difference.
- Lose with one bonus point or no bonus point: Out.
Bottom line: The Turbos need to beat Canterbury. Then they wait.
BAY OF PLENTY — BONUS-POINT WIN, THEN HOPE
Current position: 10th, 23 points
Opposition: North Harbour
- Win with a bonus point: Keeps them alive, but they need Tasman to lose without a bonus point and Manawatū not to win or draw with a try bonus.
- Win without a bonus point: They can only qualify via points difference, and need Tasman to lose without a bonus point plus a favourable Manawatū result.
- Anything else: Out.
Bottom line: The Steamers need a bonus-point win — and then plenty of help elsewhere.